How to use this simulator for the future stock price of Bitcoin Treasuries Company (BTCTC)?
Quick Guide
This simulator projects the implied price per share of a company with a Bitcoin accumulation strategy, taking into account the growth of held Bitcoin (BTC), mNAV (NAV multiple), projection period, and future Bitcoin price.
Steps to use it:
- Choose a company: Click on the "Company" selector to pre-fill fully diluted shares and current BTC (e.g., Capital B, MicroStrategy). Or select "Blank (manual)" to enter everything manually.
- Fill in current data:
- Shares (fully diluted): Total number of fully diluted shares.
- BTC Held (current): Number of BTC in treasury today.
- Project the future:
- BTC Held at End of Period: Estimated BTC in X months.
- Months in the Future: Projection duration (e.g., 48 months = 4 years).
- Average mNAV until End of Period: Average NAV multiple (1.00 for pure NAV; >1 for premium).
- BTC Value at End of Period: Projected BTC price at the end of the chosen period.
- View results (updated live):
- Simulated Price / Share: Projected price per share, based on the formula (in $ or company currency).
- NAV: Total value of BTC at projected price.
Tips:
- Manual mode for custom scenarios.
- Auto-recalculation on each input.
- If still "$0" after putting datas : Check that all fields are filled and >0.
The stock price projection formula
This formula, developed by ₿themoon, calculates the future stock price taking into account latent dilution.
Here is its formula, which is used in this simulator:
Simulated Price / Share = (Current BTC treasury holdings * ((End of period BTC treasury holdings / Current BTC treasury holdings) ^ (1 / Months into the future)) ^ Months into the future * Average mNAV until end of period * End of period BTC price) / (Fully diluted actual share count * (((End of period BTC treasury holdings / Current BTC treasury holdings) ^ (1 / Months into the future) + Average mNAV until end of period - 1) / Average mNAV until end of period) ^ Months into the future)